Fraction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths attributable to chronic diseases

AimTo estimate the fraction of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 attributable to chronic diseases due to poor nutrition and smoking in Mexico. MethodsWe used data from the Mexican surveillance system of COVID-19. We considered six chronic diseases (obesity, COPD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease) to define a multimorbidity variable: no diseases, 1 disease, 2 diseases, or 3 or more diseases. We calibrated the database using bias quantification methods to consider the undiagnosed cases of chronic diseases. To estimate the risks of hospitalization and death due to chronic diseases, we fitted Poisson regression models with robust standard errors, adjusting for possible confounders. Using these risks, we calculated attributable fractions using the population attributable fraction (PAF). ResultsChronic diseases accounted for to 25.4% (24.8%, 26.1%), 28.3% (27.8%, 28.7%) and 15.3% (14.9%,15.7%) of the hospitalizations among adults below 40 years, 40 to 59, and 60 years and older respectively (95% CI). For COVID-19-related deaths, 50.1% (48.6%, 51.5%), 40.5% (39.7%, 41.3%), and 18.7% (18.0%, 19.5%) were attributable to chronic diseases in adults under 40 years, 40 to 59, and 60 years and older, respectively. ConclusionChronic diseases linked to malnutrition and tobacco use contributed to a higher burden of hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19 in Mexico, particularly among younger adults. Medical and structural interventions to curb chronic disease incidence and facilitate disease control are urgently needed.

The impact of population mobility on COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic disparities at the sub-city level in 314 Latin American cities

BackgroundLittle is known about the impact of changes in mobility at the sub-city level on subsequent COVID-19 incidence or the contribution of mobility to socioeconomic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. MethodsWe compiled aggregated mobile phone location data, COVID-19 confirmed cases, and features of the urban and social environments to analyze linkages between population mobility, COVID-19 incidence, and educational attainment at the sub-city level among cities with >100,000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico from March to August 2020. We used mixed effects negative binomial regression to examine longitudinal associations between changes in weekly mobility (lags 1-6 weeks) and subsequent COVID-19 incidence at the sub-city level, adjusting for urban environmental factors. FindingsAmong 1,031 sub-cities representing 314 cities in five Latin American countries, 10% higher weekly mobility was associated with 8.5% (95% CI 7.4% to 9.5%) higher weekly COVID-19 incidence the following week. This association gradually declined as the lag between mobility and COVID-19 incidence increased and was not different from the null at a six-week lag. We found evidence that suggests differences in mobility reductions are a driver of socioeconomic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. InterpretationLower population movement within a sub-city is associated with lower risk of subsequent COVID-19 incidence among residents of that sub-city. Implementing policies that reduce population mobility at the sub-city level may be an impactful COVID-19 mitigation strategy that takes equity into consideration and reduces economic and social disruption at the city or regional level. FundingWellcome Trust